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KPIT / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
99%
WN2
98%
AIFS
94%
HRES
89%
ICON
76%
Consensus
92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 87.4¢Risks 87.40u
VS
ICONNO 12.6¢Risks 12.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.60u · ICON −12.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 96.5% · 2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.6% · 2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.6% · 2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.6% · 2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.6% · 2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.6% · 2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00IFS HRES: 82.0% · 2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00IFS HRES: 82.0% · 2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00IFS HRES: 82.0% · 2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00IFS HRES: 82.0% · 2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00IFS HRES: 82.0% · 2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00IFS HRES: 88.6% · 2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00ICON: 76.0% · 2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:0009-30 15:5309-30 21:0910-01 02:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:0095.2%98.8%98.1%82.0%76.0%
2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:0095.2%98.8%98.1%82.0%76.0%
2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:0095.2%98.8%98.3%82.0%76.0%
2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:0095.2%98.8%98.3%82.0%76.0%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:0095.2%98.8%98.3%82.0%76.0%
2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:0096.5%98.8%98.3%88.6%76.0%
2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:0096.5%98.8%98.3%88.6%76.0%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:0096.5%98.8%98.3%88.6%76.0%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:0096.5%98.8%98.3%88.6%76.0%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:0096.5%98.8%98.3%88.6%76.0%
2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:0096.5%98.8%97.6%88.6%76.0%
2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:0096.5%98.8%97.6%88.6%76.0%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:0096.5%98.8%97.6%88.6%76.0%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:0093.6%98.8%97.6%88.6%76.0%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:0093.6%98.8%97.6%88.6%76.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble99%67.8°F3.7°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 298%67.8°F4.2°F2026-09-30 12:00Pending
AIFS Single94%67.0°F4.9°F2026-09-30 18:00Pending
IFS HRES89%66.5°F5.8°F2026-09-30 12:00Pending
ICON76%63.6°F5.8°F2026-09-30 12:00Pending
National Blend58%60.6°F5.5°F2026-09-30 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%60.0°F5.1°F2026-09-30 15:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 30 · 15:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗