KPIT / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

92%

71%

70%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.0¢Risks 84.00u

ICONNO 16.0¢Risks 16.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.00u · ICON −16.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	87.8%	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	88.2%	—	—	75.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	40.7%	—	—	72.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	76.4%	—	—	77.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	27.7%	73.5%	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	34.9%	55.6%	44.4%	—	78.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	79.5%	58.7%	76.3%	—	78.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	30.3%	—	20.0%	33.7%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	48.4%	39.7%	71.2%	—	73.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	42.7%	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	48.3%	61.5%	47.5%	—	81.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	43.2%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	55.2%	38.8%	56.1%	—	66.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	67.0%	44.5%	64.4%	61.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	54.9%	60.6%	—	66.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	65.1%	56.1%	—	64.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	63.5%	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	58.7%	76.2%	51.1%	—	58.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	66.4%	76.9%	2.6%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	65.9%	66.9%	52.3%	—	63.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	70.7%	64.1%	56.0%	—	65.3%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	77.3%	72.4%	63.4%	71.3%	75.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	72.0%	70.9%	59.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	80.9%	79.0%	66.9%	70.5%	80.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	76.8%	83.6%	62.3%	—	84.5%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	82.8%	89.8%	73.2%	87.0%	86.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	82.8%	93.0%	77.6%	—	32.5%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	82.9%	95.2%	76.2%	88.3%	87.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	87.7%	95.5%	75.9%	—	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	68.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	67.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	63.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 28 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗