KPIT / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 05 · 06:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

94%

71%

42%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.6¢Risks 69.60u

ICONNO 30.4¢Risks 30.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.40u · ICON −30.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	81.1%	—	—	54.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	65.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	29.1%	—	—	60.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	65.2%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	17.6%	61.3%	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	23.0%	41.6%	31.1%	—	66.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	67.7%	44.2%	63.6%	—	65.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	18.4%	—	11.0%	21.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	75.8%	33.0%	25.5%	56.4%	—	58.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	27.7%	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	32.2%	45.0%	31.5%	—	67.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	27.4%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	37.9%	23.4%	38.8%	—	49.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	49.1%	27.4%	46.3%	43.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	59.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	35.7%	41.3%	—	47.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	44.9%	35.9%	—	43.9%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	42.6%	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	37.1%	56.5%	30.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	44.4%	56.7%	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.0%	44.2%	30.0%	—	40.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	47.6%	40.5%	32.5%	—	41.6%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	55.0%	48.8%	38.9%	47.5%	52.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	47.4%	46.1%	33.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	58.0%	55.4%	40.7%	44.6%	56.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	51.4%	61.0%	35.0%	—	62.3%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	58.6%	70.7%	45.7%	65.5%	64.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	57.5%	76.4%	50.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	56.3%	80.8%	46.8%	65.4%	63.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	63.0%	80.8%	45.1%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	69.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	65.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	62.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗