KPIT / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 05 · 06:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

94%

71%

42%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.6¢Risks 69.60u

ICONNO 30.4¢Risks 30.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.40u · ICON −30.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T03:11:12+00:00	76.2%	87.7%	84.6%	69.8%	50.7%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	76.2%	87.7%	84.6%	69.8%	50.7%
2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00	76.2%	87.7%	84.6%	69.8%	50.7%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	76.2%	87.7%	81.7%	69.8%	50.7%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	76.2%	87.7%	81.7%	69.8%	50.7%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	76.2%	87.7%	81.7%	69.8%	50.7%
2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00	69.0%	87.7%	81.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00	69.0%	87.7%	81.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00	69.0%	87.7%	81.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00	69.0%	87.7%	81.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	69.0%	87.7%	81.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T11:29:04+00:00	69.0%	86.5%	80.5%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T12:14:27+00:00	69.0%	86.5%	80.5%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T12:59:33+00:00	69.0%	86.5%	80.5%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T13:44:40+00:00	65.9%	86.5%	80.5%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T14:32:53+00:00	65.2%	86.5%	80.5%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T15:18:06+00:00	65.2%	87.7%	80.5%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T16:03:39+00:00	65.2%	87.7%	80.5%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T16:48:47+00:00	65.2%	87.7%	80.5%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T17:33:56+00:00	65.2%	87.7%	83.8%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	65.2%	87.7%	83.8%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T19:04:07+00:00	65.2%	87.7%	83.8%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T19:49:12+00:00	69.1%	87.7%	83.8%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T20:34:23+00:00	69.1%	87.7%	83.8%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T21:19:29+00:00	69.1%	87.7%	83.8%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T22:04:37+00:00	69.1%	87.7%	83.8%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T22:49:46+00:00	69.1%	87.7%	83.8%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-01T23:34:51+00:00	69.1%	87.7%	86.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-02T00:19:57+00:00	69.1%	87.7%	86.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-02T01:05:06+00:00	69.1%	87.7%	86.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-02T01:50:17+00:00	73.5%	87.7%	86.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00	73.5%	87.7%	86.7%	49.2%	50.7%
2026-10-03T03:32:54+00:00	82.2%	91.7%	93.7%	54.4%	50.0%
2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00	82.2%	91.7%	93.7%	54.4%	50.0%
2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00	82.2%	91.7%	90.2%	54.4%	50.0%
2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00	82.2%	91.7%	90.2%	54.4%	50.0%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	82.2%	91.7%	90.2%	54.4%	50.0%
2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00	82.2%	91.7%	90.2%	54.4%	50.0%
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00	80.0%	91.7%	90.2%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00	80.0%	91.7%	90.2%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00	80.0%	91.7%	90.2%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00	80.0%	91.7%	90.2%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00	80.0%	99.1%	85.8%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00	80.0%	99.1%	85.8%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00	80.0%	99.1%	85.8%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00	80.0%	99.1%	85.8%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T14:09:32+00:00	80.1%	99.1%	85.7%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T14:54:50+00:00	80.1%	99.4%	85.7%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T15:40:17+00:00	80.1%	99.4%	85.7%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	80.1%	99.4%	85.7%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	80.1%	99.4%	86.4%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	80.1%	99.4%	86.4%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	80.1%	99.4%	86.4%	53.9%	32.5%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	83.3%	99.4%	86.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	83.3%	99.4%	86.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	83.3%	99.4%	86.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	83.3%	99.4%	86.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	83.3%	99.4%	86.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	83.3%	99.4%	88.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	83.3%	99.4%	88.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	83.3%	99.4%	88.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	85.6%	99.4%	88.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	85.6%	99.4%	88.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	85.6%	99.4%	88.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T03:42:43+00:00	85.6%	99.4%	88.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	85.6%	99.4%	88.4%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	85.6%	99.4%	89.7%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	85.6%	99.4%	89.7%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	85.6%	99.4%	89.7%	58.7%	38.8%
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00	89.3%	99.4%	89.7%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00	89.3%	99.4%	89.7%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00	89.3%	99.4%	89.7%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00	89.3%	99.4%	89.7%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00	89.3%	99.4%	89.7%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	89.3%	98.0%	92.6%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	89.3%	98.0%	92.6%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	89.3%	98.0%	92.6%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	91.4%	98.0%	92.6%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	91.4%	97.7%	92.5%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T15:06:39+00:00	91.4%	97.1%	92.5%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	91.4%	97.1%	92.5%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	91.4%	97.1%	92.5%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	91.4%	97.1%	94.2%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T18:08:19+00:00	91.4%	97.1%	94.2%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	91.4%	97.1%	94.2%	64.6%	39.9%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	94.2%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	94.2%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	94.2%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	94.2%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	94.2%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T05:26:15+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	94.1%	97.1%	96.3%	71.3%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	69.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	65.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	62.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗