KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Sep 29 · 10:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

55%

51%

45%

45%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.1¢Risks 58.05u

ICONNO 41.9¢Risks 41.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.95u · ICON −41.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	74.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	89.7%	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	3.9%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	31.2%	—	—	75.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	18.4%	46.6%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	4.2%	—	6.0%	65.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	48.5%	35.0%	37.1%	—	52.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	40.2%	23.4%	25.8%	—	59.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	53.2%	37.5%	56.4%	—	49.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	40.1%	49.2%	45.8%	47.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	42.2%	54.4%	—	59.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	60.0%	27.4%	—	59.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	49.0%	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	48.0%	79.7%	51.0%	—	64.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	60.9%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	50.0%	84.9%	46.9%	—	61.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	66.5%	86.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	68.9%	87.5%	43.5%	1.1%	58.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	63.3%	82.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	61.5%	85.3%	53.5%	0.9%	55.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	65.3%	80.9%	45.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	57.4%	83.4%	48.8%	55.0%	61.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	52.6%	89.1%	39.8%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	54.0%	86.6%	33.1%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	61.0%	82.7%	36.3%	—	63.7%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	74.4%	88.5%	38.6%	58.6%	69.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	68.9%	84.7%	54.5%	—	63.3%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	62.4%	83.9%	39.1%	50.0%	56.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	70.5%	84.0%	46.7%	—	67.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	63.7°F	5.7°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	61.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	61.1°F	5.2°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	60.7°F	5.6°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	59.7°F	6.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	45%	59.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE61
Opened Sep 29 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 61°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗