WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Sep 29 · 10:23 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
71%
WN2
55%
AIFS
51%
HRES
45%
ICON
45%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 58.1¢Risks 58.05u
VS
ICONNO 41.9¢Risks 41.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.95u · ICON −41.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.6% · 2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.6% · 2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.6% · 2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.6% · 2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.6% · 2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00IFS HRES: 45.0% · 2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:0009-29 07:2209-29 08:5309-29 10:23
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:0051.4%71.4%54.6%45.0%44.7%
2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:0051.4%71.4%54.6%45.0%44.7%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:0051.4%71.4%54.6%45.0%44.7%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:0051.4%71.4%54.6%45.0%44.7%
2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:0051.4%71.4%54.6%45.0%44.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble71%63.7°F5.7°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
National Blend56%61.4°F5.5°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 255%61.1°F5.2°F2026-09-28 18:00Pending
AIFS Single51%60.7°F5.6°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
IFS HRES45%59.7°F6.3°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
ICON45%59.2°F9.8°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE61
Opened Sep 29 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 61°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗