KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

71%

44%

24%

16%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

ICONNO 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.75u · ICON −54.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	58.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	79.0%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	1.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	16.4%	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	8.0%	27.7%	—	—	41.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	1.2%	—	1.9%	44.4%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	27.9%	17.5%	18.9%	—	31.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	20.5%	9.7%	11.0%	—	36.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	30.1%	17.9%	33.0%	—	26.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	18.9%	25.8%	23.2%	24.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	19.6%	29.1%	—	33.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	33.0%	9.8%	—	32.2%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	23.1%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	21.8%	53.9%	24.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	31.7%	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	21.9%	60.2%	19.7%	—	31.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	35.5%	62.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	37.1%	62.9%	16.2%	0.1%	27.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	30.5%	53.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	28.0%	57.0%	21.5%	0.1%	23.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	30.4%	48.8%	15.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	22.7%	51.2%	16.6%	20.8%	25.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	18.2%	60.2%	10.9%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	18.2%	54.0%	7.4%	15.7%	24.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	22.1%	45.8%	8.1%	—	24.2%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	33.1%	54.3%	8.3%	19.1%	28.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	26.0%	45.5%	15.3%	—	21.3%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	19.2%	42.1%	7.1%	11.7%	15.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	24.1%	40.2%	9.2%	—	21.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	65.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	64.9°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	61.6°F	2.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	60.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 04 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗