KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

71%

44%

24%

16%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

ICONNO 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.75u · ICON −54.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T03:42:43+00:00	77.0%	29.8%	77.3%	41.2%	26.0%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	77.0%	29.8%	77.3%	41.2%	26.0%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	77.0%	29.8%	85.3%	41.2%	26.0%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	77.0%	29.8%	85.3%	41.2%	26.0%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	77.0%	29.8%	85.3%	41.2%	26.0%
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00	77.3%	29.8%	85.3%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00	77.3%	29.8%	85.3%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00	77.3%	29.8%	85.3%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00	77.3%	29.8%	85.3%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00	77.3%	29.8%	85.3%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	77.3%	29.2%	85.0%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	77.3%	29.2%	85.0%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	77.3%	29.2%	85.0%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	77.3%	29.2%	85.0%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	77.3%	29.6%	84.9%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T15:06:39+00:00	77.3%	28.2%	84.9%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	77.3%	28.2%	84.9%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	77.3%	28.2%	84.9%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	77.3%	28.2%	82.5%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T18:08:19+00:00	77.3%	28.2%	82.5%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	77.3%	28.2%	82.5%	40.4%	32.5%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	71.9%	28.2%	82.5%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	71.9%	28.2%	82.5%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	71.9%	28.2%	82.5%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	71.9%	28.2%	82.5%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	71.9%	28.2%	82.5%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	71.9%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	71.9%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	71.9%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	68.5%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	68.5%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	68.5%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	68.5%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	68.5%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T05:26:15+00:00	68.5%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	68.5%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	68.5%	28.2%	75.1%	37.6%	24.8%
2026-10-05T07:41:45+00:00	65.5%	28.2%	75.1%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	65.5%	28.2%	75.1%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	65.5%	28.2%	75.1%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	65.5%	28.2%	75.1%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	65.5%	28.2%	75.1%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	65.5%	26.8%	67.2%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	65.5%	26.8%	67.2%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	65.5%	26.8%	67.2%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	64.5%	26.8%	67.2%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	64.5%	26.9%	67.1%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	64.5%	25.7%	67.1%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	64.5%	25.7%	67.1%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	64.5%	25.7%	67.1%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	64.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	64.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	64.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	14.7%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	65.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	65.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	65.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	65.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	65.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	65.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	65.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	65.5%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	67.3%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	67.3%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	67.3%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	67.3%	25.7%	63.4%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	67.3%	25.7%	69.6%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	67.3%	25.7%	69.6%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	67.3%	25.7%	69.6%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	67.3%	25.7%	69.6%	43.6%	12.9%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	72.3%	25.7%	69.6%	43.6%	16.0%
2026-10-06T08:39:11+00:00	72.3%	25.7%	69.6%	43.6%	16.0%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	72.3%	25.7%	69.6%	43.6%	16.0%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	72.3%	25.7%	69.6%	43.6%	16.0%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	72.3%	24.1%	71.4%	43.6%	16.0%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	72.3%	24.1%	71.4%	43.6%	16.0%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	72.3%	24.1%	71.4%	43.6%	16.0%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	72.3%	24.1%	71.4%	43.6%	16.0%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	74.5%	24.1%	71.4%	43.6%	16.0%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	74.5%	24.1%	71.4%	43.6%	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	65.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	64.9°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	61.6°F	2.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	60.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 04 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗