KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

83%

80%

79%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 89.3¢Risks 89.35u

ICONNO 10.7¢Risks 10.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.65u · ICON −10.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	6.0%	—	—	59.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	43.7%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	—	—	42.9%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	1.4%	54.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	67.0%	51.4%	0.4%	—	72.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	63.6%	51.5%	63.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	76.1%	77.2%	58.3%	75.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	61.8%	58.7%	—	81.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	74.2%	68.5%	—	68.5%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	58.5%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	94.3%	70.1%	86.9%	64.6%	—	86.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	87.9%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	67.8%	92.4%	71.8%	—	88.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	92.3%	95.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	95.4%	95.8%	65.2%	—	88.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	92.7%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	93.3%	97.0%	68.8%	—	87.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	93.8%	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	95.0%	96.2%	73.6%	0.0%	92.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	93.3%	97.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	92.4%	95.5%	78.5%	0.0%	92.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	93.8%	93.8%	84.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	96.0%	95.1%	87.0%	81.8%	97.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	95.1%	96.3%	89.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	93.0%	95.0%	90.5%	83.5%	96.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	96.0%	94.6%	93.3%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	95.6%	94.5%	95.3%	87.0%	98.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	96.8%	95.9%	95.2%	—	97.1%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	98.2%	96.6%	94.3%	87.5%	98.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	99.4%	97.9%	96.6%	—	98.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	76.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	74.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	68.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	70.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	79%	70.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 30 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗