KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

79%

75%

62%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.5¢Risks 80.45u

ICONNO 19.6¢Risks 19.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.55u · ICON −19.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	3.3%	—	—	48.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	47.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	31.8%	—	—	47.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	—	—	30.6%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	0.5%	40.6%	—	—	54.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	53.5%	37.6%	0.1%	—	59.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	49.3%	37.1%	49.3%	—	52.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	62.7%	64.2%	43.2%	62.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	46.0%	42.9%	—	68.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	59.1%	52.5%	—	52.5%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	41.5%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	53.5%	75.2%	47.4%	—	74.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	76.5%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	50.0%	83.4%	54.6%	—	76.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	82.9%	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	88.4%	89.3%	46.1%	—	76.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	83.0%	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	83.7%	91.4%	49.0%	—	74.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	84.4%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	86.3%	89.1%	53.3%	0.0%	81.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	82.5%	90.8%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	80.1%	86.6%	58.1%	0.0%	79.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	82.5%	82.5%	66.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	87.0%	84.9%	69.2%	61.1%	89.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	84.2%	87.2%	73.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	79.0%	83.5%	73.9%	61.9%	88.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	85.3%	81.8%	78.9%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	83.7%	80.9%	82.8%	65.5%	92.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	86.4%	83.8%	81.9%	—	87.2%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	90.4%	84.8%	78.6%	63.9%	89.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	95.5%	88.5%	84.0%	—	92.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	76.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	71.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	69.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 03 · 03:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗