KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

79%

75%

62%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.5¢Risks 80.45u

ICONNO 19.6¢Risks 19.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.55u · ICON −19.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T03:32:56+00:00	92.0%	63.4%	98.4%	69.2%	67.9%
2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00	92.0%	63.4%	98.4%	69.2%	67.9%
2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00	92.0%	63.4%	98.2%	69.2%	67.9%
2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00	92.0%	63.4%	98.2%	69.2%	67.9%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	92.0%	63.4%	98.2%	69.2%	67.9%
2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00	92.0%	63.4%	98.2%	69.2%	67.9%
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00	96.7%	63.4%	98.2%	82.6%	64.9%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00	96.7%	63.4%	98.2%	82.6%	64.9%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00	96.7%	63.4%	98.2%	82.6%	64.9%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00	96.7%	63.4%	98.2%	82.6%	64.9%
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00	96.7%	72.8%	99.4%	82.6%	64.9%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00	96.7%	72.8%	99.4%	82.6%	64.9%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00	96.7%	72.8%	99.4%	82.6%	64.9%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00	96.7%	72.8%	99.4%	82.6%	64.9%
2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00	97.8%	72.8%	99.4%	82.6%	64.8%
2026-10-03T14:54:50+00:00	97.8%	75.1%	99.4%	82.6%	64.8%
2026-10-03T15:40:18+00:00	97.8%	75.1%	99.4%	82.6%	64.8%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	97.8%	75.1%	99.4%	82.6%	64.8%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	97.8%	75.1%	99.4%	82.6%	64.8%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	97.8%	75.1%	99.4%	82.6%	64.8%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	97.8%	75.1%	99.4%	82.6%	64.8%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	97.6%	75.1%	99.4%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	97.6%	75.1%	99.4%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	97.6%	75.1%	99.4%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	97.6%	75.1%	99.4%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	97.6%	75.1%	99.4%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	97.6%	75.1%	99.3%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	97.6%	75.1%	99.3%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	97.6%	75.1%	99.3%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	97.7%	75.1%	99.3%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	97.7%	75.1%	99.3%	78.8%	61.6%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	97.7%	75.1%	99.3%	78.8%	61.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	76.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	71.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	69.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 03 · 03:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗