KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 07 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

72%

44%

30%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.0¢Risks 63.05u

ICONNO 37.0¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.95u · ICON −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	17.2%	—	—	29.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	16.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	0.1%	22.8%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	33.0%	19.9%	0.0%	—	38.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	28.5%	18.9%	28.5%	—	31.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	40.2%	41.7%	22.8%	39.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	24.2%	21.8%	—	45.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	34.5%	28.6%	—	28.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	19.6%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	28.4%	50.9%	23.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	51.8%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	24.4%	60.9%	28.2%	—	50.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	59.4%	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	67.8%	69.6%	20.3%	—	49.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	58.0%	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	58.2%	72.4%	21.2%	—	44.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	58.4%	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	60.8%	65.9%	23.0%	0.0%	53.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	53.4%	68.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	48.8%	59.2%	25.1%	0.0%	47.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	51.2%	51.2%	31.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	57.4%	53.7%	33.1%	25.6%	62.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	51.3%	56.4%	36.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	42.0%	48.7%	35.6%	24.0%	56.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	50.0%	44.4%	40.3%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	45.7%	41.4%	44.2%	24.5%	64.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	48.5%	44.0%	41.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	54.7%	43.7%	34.6%	20.3%	53.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	67.6%	48.4%	40.2%	—	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	71.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 04 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗