KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 07 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

72%

44%

30%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.0¢Risks 63.05u

ICONNO 37.0¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.95u · ICON −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T03:42:44+00:00	91.1%	34.7%	94.9%	57.9%	36.8%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	91.1%	34.7%	94.9%	57.9%	36.8%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	91.1%	34.7%	95.2%	57.9%	36.8%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	91.1%	34.7%	95.2%	57.9%	36.8%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	91.1%	34.7%	95.2%	57.9%	36.8%
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00	90.9%	34.7%	95.2%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00	90.9%	34.7%	95.2%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00	90.9%	34.7%	95.2%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00	90.9%	34.7%	95.2%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00	90.9%	34.7%	95.2%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	90.9%	33.8%	95.6%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	90.9%	33.8%	95.6%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	90.9%	33.8%	95.6%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	91.3%	33.8%	95.6%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	91.3%	34.2%	95.5%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T15:06:39+00:00	91.3%	30.5%	95.5%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	91.3%	30.5%	95.5%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	91.3%	30.5%	95.5%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	91.3%	30.5%	94.3%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T18:08:19+00:00	91.3%	30.5%	94.3%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	91.3%	30.5%	94.3%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	88.8%	30.5%	94.3%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	88.8%	30.5%	94.3%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	88.8%	30.5%	94.3%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	88.8%	30.5%	94.3%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	88.8%	30.5%	94.3%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	88.8%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	88.8%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	88.8%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	87.0%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	87.0%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	87.0%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	87.0%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	87.0%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T05:26:15+00:00	87.0%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	87.0%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	87.0%	30.5%	92.8%	55.3%	63.1%
2026-10-05T07:41:45+00:00	89.5%	30.5%	92.8%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	89.5%	30.5%	92.8%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	89.5%	30.5%	92.8%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	89.5%	30.5%	92.8%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	89.5%	30.5%	92.8%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	89.5%	36.7%	92.2%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	89.5%	36.7%	92.2%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	89.5%	36.7%	92.2%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	90.0%	36.7%	92.2%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	90.0%	36.9%	92.1%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	92.1%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	92.1%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	92.1%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	89.5%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	89.5%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	89.5%	65.2%	56.7%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	86.7%	34.9%	89.5%	65.2%	44.4%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	86.7%	34.9%	89.5%	65.2%	44.4%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	86.7%	34.9%	89.5%	65.2%	44.4%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	86.7%	34.9%	89.5%	65.2%	44.4%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	86.7%	34.9%	89.5%	65.2%	44.4%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	86.7%	34.9%	85.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	86.7%	34.9%	85.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	86.7%	34.9%	85.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	85.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	85.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	85.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	85.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	92.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	92.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	92.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	90.0%	34.9%	92.6%	65.2%	45.5%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	91.4%	34.9%	92.6%	65.2%	42.1%
2026-10-06T08:39:11+00:00	91.4%	34.9%	92.6%	65.2%	42.1%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	91.4%	34.9%	92.6%	65.2%	42.1%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	91.4%	34.9%	92.6%	65.2%	42.1%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	91.4%	43.2%	93.3%	65.2%	42.1%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	91.4%	43.2%	93.3%	65.2%	42.1%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	91.4%	43.2%	93.3%	65.2%	42.1%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	91.4%	43.2%	93.3%	65.2%	42.1%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	91.1%	43.2%	93.3%	65.2%	43.3%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	91.1%	43.2%	93.3%	65.2%	43.3%
2026-10-07T04:19:55+00:00	90.7%	44.5%	88.4%	72.2%	30.5%
2026-10-07T05:06:53+00:00	90.7%	44.5%	95.6%	72.2%	30.5%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	90.7%	44.5%	95.6%	72.2%	30.5%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	90.7%	44.5%	95.6%	72.2%	30.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	71.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 04 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗