KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

70%

52%

20%

14%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

ICONNO 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.20u · ICON −53.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	22.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	10.4%	—	—	19.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	9.3%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	0.0%	13.9%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	21.4%	11.5%	0.0%	—	25.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	17.5%	10.6%	17.5%	—	19.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	26.4%	27.7%	12.9%	25.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	13.6%	11.9%	—	30.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	20.7%	16.2%	—	16.2%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	9.9%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	15.6%	33.8%	12.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	34.2%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	12.4%	42.7%	14.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	40.6%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	49.0%	51.0%	9.4%	—	30.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	38.2%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	37.8%	53.1%	9.4%	—	25.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	37.5%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	39.2%	44.5%	9.9%	0.0%	32.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	31.5%	46.6%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	27.0%	36.3%	10.5%	0.0%	26.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	28.3%	28.3%	13.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	33.1%	29.8%	14.4%	10.0%	37.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	26.9%	31.4%	15.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	19.1%	24.0%	14.9%	8.4%	30.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	24.2%	20.1%	17.3%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	20.2%	17.2%	19.1%	7.8%	35.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	21.3%	18.1%	16.2%	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	25.0%	17.1%	11.7%	5.2%	23.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	35.5%	19.2%	14.1%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗