KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

70%

52%

20%

14%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

ICONNO 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.20u · ICON −53.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T15:29:10+00:00	80.2%	20.5%	79.4%	46.1%	23.1%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	80.2%	20.5%	79.4%	46.1%	23.1%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	80.2%	20.5%	68.4%	46.1%	23.1%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	80.2%	20.5%	68.4%	46.1%	23.1%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	80.2%	20.5%	68.4%	46.1%	23.1%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	80.2%	20.5%	68.4%	46.1%	23.1%
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00	78.0%	20.5%	68.4%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	78.0%	20.5%	68.4%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	78.0%	20.5%	68.4%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	78.0%	20.5%	68.4%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	78.0%	20.5%	69.6%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	78.0%	20.5%	69.6%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	78.0%	20.5%	69.6%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	78.0%	20.5%	69.6%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	79.5%	20.5%	69.6%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	79.5%	20.5%	69.6%	52.1%	14.1%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	79.5%	20.5%	69.6%	52.1%	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗