KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

18%

16%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.8¢Risks 12.80u

EPSNO 87.2¢Risks 87.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.20u · EPS −87.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	1.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	1.8%	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	3.2%	1.2%	0.0%	—	4.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	2.1%	0.9%	2.1%	—	2.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	3.8%	4.1%	1.1%	3.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	1.1%	0.9%	—	4.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	1.9%	1.2%	—	1.2%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.5%	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	1.0%	4.1%	0.7%	—	3.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	3.9%	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	0.5%	5.8%	0.8%	—	3.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	4.8%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	6.8%	7.5%	0.3%	—	2.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	3.5%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	3.2%	7.1%	0.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.8%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.8%	3.8%	0.2%	0.0%	1.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	1.5%	3.8%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.9%	1.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.9%	0.9%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.5%	0.8%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	72.1°F	9.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	74.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	73.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 30 · 16:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗