KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

18%

16%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.8¢Risks 12.80u

EPSNO 87.2¢Risks 87.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.20u · EPS −87.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00	12.0%	0.5%	0.8%	11.5%	25.6%
2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00	12.0%	0.5%	0.6%	11.5%	25.6%
2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00	12.0%	0.5%	0.6%	11.5%	25.6%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	12.0%	0.5%	0.6%	11.5%	25.6%
2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00	23.5%	0.5%	0.6%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00	23.5%	0.5%	0.6%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	23.5%	0.5%	0.6%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	23.5%	0.5%	0.6%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	23.5%	0.5%	0.6%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00	23.5%	0.5%	1.9%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00	23.5%	0.5%	1.9%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	23.5%	0.5%	1.9%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	1.9%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	1.9%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-10-01T03:11:12+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	1.9%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	1.9%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00	10.3%	0.5%	1.9%	9.3%	25.6%
2026-10-02T07:07:07+00:00	11.8%	0.1%	18.4%	16.3%	25.5%
2026-10-02T07:52:19+00:00	13.2%	0.1%	18.4%	16.3%	25.5%
2026-10-02T08:37:30+00:00	13.2%	0.1%	18.4%	16.3%	25.5%
2026-10-02T09:22:35+00:00	13.2%	0.1%	18.4%	16.3%	25.5%
2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00	13.2%	0.1%	18.4%	16.3%	25.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	72.1°F	9.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	74.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	73.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 30 · 16:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗