KPIT / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

62%

57%

30%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.6¢Risks 63.65u

ICONNO 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.35u · ICON −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	1.3%	—	—	51.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	48.8%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	56.3%	—	—	53.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	34.8%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	4.2%	0.6%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	65.7%	3.9%	65.1%	74.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	79.0%	39.2%	—	69.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	85.4%	54.6%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	77.6%	85.5%	30.9%	—	57.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	15.3%	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	45.8%	86.2%	16.2%	—	46.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	35.8%	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	25.5%	71.6%	37.1%	—	63.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	43.7%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	56.4%	57.3%	55.5%	—	57.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	32.6%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	55.8%	59.6%	78.2%	—	65.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	53.0%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	43.9%	68.8%	79.5%	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	42.6%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	70.8%	62.9%	56.5%	44.5%	68.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	51.1%	80.2%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	57.0%	74.9%	45.4%	—	48.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	58.4%	77.5%	41.6%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	57.4%	72.4%	27.6%	17.4%	55.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	32.5%	42.3%	19.1%	—	48.7%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	40.7%	44.6%	24.0%	27.3%	42.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	51.4%	41.7%	35.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	65.5%	64.2%	33.1%	38.6%	47.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	70.2%	57.5%	44.0%	—	57.5%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	71.0%	54.7%	46.8%	43.7%	59.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	78.5%	58.2%	54.9%	—	74.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	75.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
National Blend	82%	70.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	69.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	69.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261008-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 01 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗