KPIT / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

62%

57%

30%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.6¢Risks 63.65u

ICONNO 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.35u · ICON −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T11:29:04+00:00	96.9%	57.9%	84.8%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T12:14:27+00:00	96.9%	57.9%	84.8%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T12:59:33+00:00	96.9%	57.9%	84.8%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T13:44:40+00:00	96.3%	57.9%	84.8%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T14:32:53+00:00	96.2%	57.9%	84.7%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T15:18:06+00:00	96.2%	60.5%	84.7%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T16:03:39+00:00	96.2%	60.5%	84.7%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T16:48:47+00:00	96.2%	60.5%	84.7%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T17:33:56+00:00	96.2%	60.5%	85.7%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	96.2%	60.5%	85.7%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T19:04:07+00:00	96.2%	60.5%	85.7%	82.4%	—
2026-10-01T19:49:12+00:00	94.1%	60.5%	85.7%	90.7%	—
2026-10-01T20:34:23+00:00	94.1%	60.5%	85.7%	90.7%	—
2026-10-01T21:19:29+00:00	94.1%	60.5%	85.7%	90.7%	—
2026-10-01T22:04:37+00:00	94.1%	60.5%	85.7%	90.7%	—
2026-10-01T22:49:46+00:00	94.1%	60.5%	85.7%	90.7%	—
2026-10-01T23:34:51+00:00	94.1%	60.5%	86.1%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T00:19:57+00:00	94.1%	60.5%	86.1%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T01:05:06+00:00	94.1%	60.5%	86.1%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T01:50:17+00:00	96.1%	60.5%	86.1%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00	96.1%	60.5%	86.1%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T03:20:50+00:00	96.1%	60.5%	86.1%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T04:06:23+00:00	96.1%	60.5%	86.1%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00	96.1%	60.5%	86.1%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T05:36:39+00:00	96.1%	60.5%	98.0%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T06:21:59+00:00	96.1%	60.5%	98.0%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T07:07:07+00:00	96.1%	60.5%	98.0%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T07:52:19+00:00	97.4%	60.5%	98.0%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T08:37:30+00:00	97.4%	60.5%	98.0%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T09:22:35+00:00	97.4%	60.5%	98.0%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00	97.4%	60.5%	98.0%	90.7%	—
2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00	97.4%	67.8%	99.3%	74.7%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:17+00:00	97.4%	67.8%	99.3%	74.7%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	97.4%	67.8%	99.3%	74.7%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:25+00:00	97.4%	67.8%	99.3%	74.7%	—
2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00	96.0%	67.5%	99.3%	74.8%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:19+00:00	96.0%	67.5%	99.5%	74.8%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:51+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.5%	74.8%	—
2026-10-02T16:14:59+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.5%	74.8%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:07+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.2%	74.8%	73.8%
2026-10-02T17:45:21+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.2%	74.8%	73.8%
2026-10-02T18:30:26+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.2%	74.8%	73.8%
2026-10-02T19:15:33+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.2%	74.8%	73.8%
2026-10-02T20:00:40+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.2%	74.8%	73.8%
2026-10-02T20:45:50+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.2%	74.8%	73.8%
2026-10-02T21:30:56+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.2%	74.8%	73.8%
2026-10-02T22:16:03+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	99.2%	74.8%	73.8%
2026-10-02T23:01:43+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	98.5%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-02T23:46:51+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	98.5%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T00:31:58+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	98.5%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T01:17:08+00:00	96.0%	69.5%	98.5%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T02:02:26+00:00	94.4%	69.5%	98.5%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00	94.4%	69.5%	98.5%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T03:32:56+00:00	94.4%	69.5%	98.5%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00	94.4%	69.5%	98.5%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00	94.4%	69.5%	96.9%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00	94.4%	69.5%	96.9%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	94.4%	69.5%	96.9%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00	94.4%	69.5%	96.9%	72.3%	73.8%
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00	91.4%	69.5%	96.9%	53.4%	85.3%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00	91.4%	69.5%	96.9%	53.4%	85.3%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00	91.4%	69.5%	96.9%	53.4%	85.3%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00	91.4%	69.5%	96.9%	53.4%	85.3%
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00	91.4%	63.9%	98.3%	53.4%	85.3%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00	91.4%	63.9%	98.3%	53.4%	85.3%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00	91.4%	63.9%	98.3%	53.4%	85.3%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00	91.4%	63.9%	98.3%	53.4%	85.3%
2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00	87.7%	63.9%	98.3%	53.4%	85.3%
2026-10-04T03:42:44+00:00	95.0%	66.3%	97.3%	58.9%	62.2%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	95.0%	66.3%	97.3%	58.9%	62.2%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	95.0%	66.3%	97.1%	58.9%	62.2%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	95.0%	66.3%	97.1%	58.9%	62.2%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	95.0%	66.3%	97.1%	58.9%	62.2%
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	97.1%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	97.1%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	97.1%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	97.1%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00	96.2%	66.3%	97.1%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	96.2%	68.4%	99.5%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	96.2%	68.4%	99.5%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	96.2%	68.4%	99.5%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	94.3%	68.4%	99.5%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	94.3%	68.2%	99.5%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T15:06:39+00:00	94.3%	66.0%	99.5%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	94.3%	66.0%	99.5%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	94.3%	66.0%	99.5%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	94.3%	66.0%	99.1%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T18:08:19+00:00	94.3%	66.0%	99.1%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	94.3%	66.0%	99.1%	57.1%	36.8%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	96.7%	66.0%	99.1%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	96.7%	66.0%	99.1%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	96.7%	66.0%	99.1%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	96.7%	66.0%	99.1%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	96.7%	66.0%	99.1%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	96.7%	66.0%	99.8%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	96.7%	66.0%	99.8%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	96.7%	66.0%	99.8%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	97.9%	66.0%	99.8%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	97.9%	66.0%	99.8%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	97.9%	66.0%	99.8%	69.8%	67.1%
2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00	96.6%	62.1%	99.4%	67.5%	43.3%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	96.6%	62.1%	98.1%	67.5%	43.3%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	96.6%	62.1%	98.1%	67.5%	43.3%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	96.6%	62.1%	98.1%	67.5%	43.3%
2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	98.1%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	98.1%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	98.1%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	98.1%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	98.1%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T00:50:45+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T03:06:21+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00	95.5%	62.1%	97.8%	57.4%	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	75.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
National Blend	82%	70.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	69.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	69.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261008-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 01 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗