KPIT / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

47%

35%

23%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.8¢Risks 59.80u

ICONNO 40.2¢Risks 40.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.20u · ICON −40.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	39.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	36.9%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	43.7%	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	23.6%	—	—	55.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	78.7%	1.9%	0.2%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	52.1%	1.7%	51.4%	62.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	67.0%	26.0%	—	55.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	74.9%	39.4%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	64.1%	74.5%	18.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	7.6%	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	30.0%	74.9%	8.0%	—	30.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	21.4%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	13.6%	55.2%	22.1%	—	46.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	27.1%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	38.2%	39.1%	37.3%	—	39.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	17.7%	49.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	36.6%	40.4%	61.5%	—	46.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	33.5%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	25.1%	49.0%	62.2%	—	45.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	23.6%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	50.0%	41.3%	35.1%	24.7%	47.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	29.6%	61.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	34.1%	53.5%	24.2%	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	34.7%	56.0%	20.8%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	33.1%	48.8%	11.2%	5.9%	30.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	13.5%	20.0%	6.4%	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	18.2%	21.0%	8.4%	10.1%	19.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	25.3%	18.2%	13.9%	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	37.2%	35.8%	12.2%	15.4%	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	41.0%	28.5%	18.1%	—	28.5%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	40.6%	25.0%	19.2%	17.1%	29.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	48.4%	26.7%	24.1%	—	43.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	69.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261008-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 03 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗