KPIT / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

47%

35%

23%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.8¢Risks 59.80u

ICONNO 40.2¢Risks 40.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.20u · ICON −40.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T14:54:50+00:00	77.4%	41.1%	94.8%	39.8%	76.0%
2026-10-03T15:40:18+00:00	77.4%	41.1%	94.8%	39.8%	76.0%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	77.4%	41.1%	94.8%	39.8%	76.0%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	77.4%	41.1%	91.9%	39.8%	76.0%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	77.4%	41.1%	91.9%	39.8%	76.0%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	77.4%	41.1%	91.9%	39.8%	76.0%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	86.4%	41.1%	91.9%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	86.4%	41.1%	91.9%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	86.4%	41.1%	91.9%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	86.4%	41.1%	91.9%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	86.4%	41.1%	91.9%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	86.4%	41.1%	92.3%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	86.4%	41.1%	92.3%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	86.4%	41.1%	92.3%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	89.3%	41.1%	92.3%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	89.3%	41.1%	92.3%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	89.3%	41.1%	92.3%	45.2%	48.6%
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	94.5%	44.5%	99.1%	54.8%	50.8%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	94.5%	44.5%	99.1%	54.8%	50.8%
2026-10-05T05:26:15+00:00	94.5%	44.5%	99.1%	54.8%	50.8%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	94.5%	44.5%	99.1%	54.8%	50.8%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	94.5%	44.5%	99.1%	54.8%	50.8%
2026-10-05T07:41:45+00:00	96.5%	44.5%	99.1%	59.7%	40.9%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	96.5%	44.5%	99.1%	59.7%	40.9%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	96.5%	44.5%	99.1%	59.7%	40.9%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	96.5%	44.5%	99.1%	59.7%	40.9%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	96.5%	44.5%	99.1%	59.7%	40.9%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	96.5%	43.8%	99.7%	59.7%	40.9%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	96.5%	43.8%	99.7%	59.7%	40.9%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	96.5%	43.8%	99.7%	59.7%	40.9%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	96.0%	43.8%	99.7%	59.7%	40.9%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	96.0%	43.9%	99.7%	59.7%	41.9%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	96.0%	42.6%	99.7%	59.7%	41.9%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	96.0%	42.6%	99.7%	59.7%	41.9%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	96.0%	42.6%	99.7%	59.7%	41.9%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	96.0%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	41.9%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	96.0%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	41.9%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	96.0%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	41.9%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	94.7%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	94.7%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	94.7%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	94.7%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	94.7%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	94.7%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	94.7%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	94.7%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	93.0%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	93.0%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	93.0%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	93.0%	42.6%	99.2%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	93.0%	42.6%	98.8%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	93.0%	42.6%	98.8%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	93.0%	42.6%	98.8%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	93.0%	42.6%	98.8%	59.7%	30.4%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	94.5%	42.6%	98.8%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T08:39:11+00:00	94.5%	42.6%	98.8%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	94.5%	42.6%	98.8%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	94.5%	42.6%	98.8%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	94.5%	45.8%	99.4%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	94.5%	45.8%	99.4%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	94.5%	45.8%	99.4%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	94.5%	45.8%	99.4%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	94.2%	45.8%	99.4%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	94.2%	45.8%	99.4%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T15:29:11+00:00	94.2%	47.2%	99.4%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	94.2%	47.2%	99.4%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	94.2%	47.2%	99.1%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	94.2%	47.2%	99.1%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	94.2%	47.2%	99.1%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	94.2%	47.2%	99.1%	59.7%	46.6%
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00	95.0%	47.2%	99.1%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	95.0%	47.2%	99.1%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	95.0%	47.2%	99.1%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	95.0%	47.2%	99.1%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	95.0%	47.2%	98.6%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	95.0%	47.2%	98.6%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	95.0%	47.2%	98.6%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	95.0%	47.2%	98.6%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	93.0%	47.2%	98.6%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	93.0%	47.2%	98.6%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	93.0%	47.2%	98.6%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T04:19:55+00:00	93.0%	47.2%	98.6%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T05:06:53+00:00	93.0%	47.2%	97.5%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	93.0%	47.2%	97.5%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	93.0%	47.2%	97.5%	44.2%	31.6%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	91.9%	47.2%	97.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	91.9%	47.2%	97.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	91.9%	47.2%	97.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	91.9%	47.2%	97.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	91.9%	47.2%	97.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	91.9%	37.5%	96.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	91.9%	37.5%	96.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	91.9%	37.5%	96.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	90.7%	37.5%	96.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	90.7%	37.5%	96.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	90.7%	35.3%	96.5%	46.8%	23.1%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	90.7%	35.3%	96.5%	46.8%	23.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	69.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261008-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 03 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗