KPIT / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

36%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

EPSNO 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.20u · EPS −76.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T07:42:34+00:00	52.2%	0.7%	16.9%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00	52.2%	0.7%	16.9%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00	52.2%	0.7%	16.9%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00	52.2%	0.7%	16.9%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	52.2%	0.7%	16.9%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T11:29:05+00:00	52.2%	0.1%	15.2%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T12:14:27+00:00	52.2%	0.1%	15.2%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T12:59:33+00:00	52.2%	0.1%	15.2%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T13:44:40+00:00	49.3%	0.1%	15.2%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T14:32:53+00:00	49.3%	0.1%	15.3%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T15:18:06+00:00	49.3%	0.1%	15.3%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T16:03:39+00:00	49.3%	0.1%	15.3%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T16:48:47+00:00	49.3%	0.1%	15.3%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T17:33:56+00:00	49.3%	0.1%	16.3%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	49.3%	0.1%	16.3%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T19:04:07+00:00	49.3%	0.1%	16.3%	25.9%	—
2026-10-01T19:49:12+00:00	40.8%	0.1%	16.3%	40.1%	—
2026-10-01T20:34:23+00:00	40.8%	0.1%	16.3%	40.1%	—
2026-10-01T21:19:29+00:00	40.8%	0.1%	16.3%	40.1%	—
2026-10-01T22:04:37+00:00	40.8%	0.1%	16.3%	40.1%	—
2026-10-01T22:49:46+00:00	40.8%	0.1%	16.3%	40.1%	—
2026-10-01T23:34:51+00:00	40.8%	0.1%	16.8%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T00:19:57+00:00	40.8%	0.1%	16.8%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T01:05:06+00:00	40.8%	0.1%	16.8%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T01:50:17+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	16.8%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	16.8%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T03:20:50+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	16.8%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T04:06:23+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	16.8%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	16.8%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T05:36:39+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	50.0%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T06:21:59+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	50.0%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T07:07:07+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	50.0%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T07:52:19+00:00	52.3%	0.1%	50.0%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T08:37:30+00:00	52.3%	0.1%	50.0%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T09:22:35+00:00	52.3%	0.1%	50.0%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00	52.3%	0.1%	50.0%	40.1%	—
2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00	52.3%	0.4%	61.2%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:17+00:00	52.3%	0.4%	61.2%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	52.3%	0.4%	61.2%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:25+00:00	52.3%	0.4%	61.2%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00	44.7%	0.5%	61.2%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:19+00:00	44.7%	0.5%	63.0%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:51+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	63.0%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T16:14:59+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	63.0%	19.8%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:07+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	57.9%	19.8%	20.9%
2026-10-02T17:45:21+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	57.9%	19.8%	20.9%
2026-10-02T18:30:26+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	57.9%	19.8%	20.9%
2026-10-02T19:15:33+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	57.9%	19.8%	20.9%
2026-10-02T20:00:40+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	57.9%	19.8%	20.9%
2026-10-02T20:45:50+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	57.9%	19.8%	20.9%
2026-10-02T21:30:56+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	57.9%	19.8%	20.9%
2026-10-02T22:16:03+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	57.9%	19.8%	20.9%
2026-10-02T23:01:43+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	48.2%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-02T23:46:51+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	48.2%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T00:31:58+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	48.2%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T01:17:08+00:00	44.7%	0.4%	48.2%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T02:02:26+00:00	38.1%	0.4%	48.2%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00	38.1%	0.4%	48.2%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T03:32:56+00:00	38.1%	0.4%	48.2%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00	38.1%	0.4%	48.2%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00	38.1%	0.4%	36.1%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00	38.1%	0.4%	36.1%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	38.1%	0.4%	36.1%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00	38.1%	0.4%	36.1%	17.8%	20.9%
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00	25.1%	0.4%	36.1%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00	25.1%	0.4%	36.1%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00	25.1%	0.4%	36.1%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00	25.1%	0.4%	36.1%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00	25.1%	0.2%	35.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00	25.1%	0.2%	35.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00	25.1%	0.2%	35.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00	25.1%	0.2%	35.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00	19.1%	0.2%	35.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T14:54:51+00:00	19.1%	0.3%	35.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T15:40:18+00:00	19.1%	0.3%	35.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	19.1%	0.3%	35.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	19.1%	0.3%	27.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	19.1%	0.3%	27.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	19.1%	0.3%	27.4%	5.0%	25.1%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	29.8%	0.3%	27.4%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	29.8%	0.3%	27.4%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	29.8%	0.3%	27.4%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	29.8%	0.3%	27.4%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	29.8%	0.3%	27.4%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	29.8%	0.3%	28.3%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	29.8%	0.3%	28.3%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	29.8%	0.3%	28.3%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	34.9%	0.3%	28.3%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	34.9%	0.3%	28.3%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	34.9%	0.3%	28.3%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T03:42:44+00:00	34.9%	0.3%	28.3%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	34.9%	0.3%	28.3%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	34.9%	0.3%	27.4%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	34.9%	0.3%	27.4%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	34.9%	0.3%	27.4%	6.6%	7.9%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	34.8%	1.0%	43.5%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	34.8%	1.0%	43.5%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	34.8%	1.0%	43.5%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	27.9%	1.0%	43.5%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	27.9%	1.1%	43.5%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T15:06:39+00:00	27.9%	1.0%	43.5%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	27.9%	1.0%	43.5%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	27.9%	1.0%	43.5%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	27.9%	1.0%	37.3%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T18:08:19+00:00	27.9%	1.0%	37.3%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	27.9%	1.0%	37.3%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	37.3%	1.0%	37.3%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	37.3%	1.0%	37.3%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	37.3%	1.0%	37.3%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	37.3%	1.0%	37.3%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	37.3%	1.0%	37.3%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	37.3%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	37.3%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	37.3%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	44.8%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	44.8%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	44.8%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	44.8%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	44.8%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T05:26:16+00:00	44.8%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	44.8%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	44.8%	1.0%	58.6%	6.9%	4.8%
2026-10-05T07:41:45+00:00	49.1%	1.0%	58.6%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	49.1%	1.0%	58.6%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	49.1%	1.0%	58.6%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	49.1%	1.0%	58.6%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	49.1%	1.0%	58.6%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	49.1%	0.4%	64.0%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	49.1%	0.4%	64.0%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	49.1%	0.4%	64.0%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	46.3%	0.4%	64.0%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	46.3%	0.4%	64.0%	6.2%	1.2%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	46.3%	0.4%	64.0%	6.2%	1.2%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	46.3%	0.4%	64.0%	6.2%	1.2%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	46.3%	0.4%	64.0%	6.2%	1.2%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	46.3%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	1.2%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	46.3%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	1.2%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	46.3%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	1.2%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	40.9%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	40.9%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	40.9%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	40.9%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	40.9%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	40.9%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	40.9%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	40.9%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	35.6%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	35.6%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	35.6%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	35.6%	0.4%	51.2%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	35.6%	0.4%	45.3%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	35.6%	0.4%	45.3%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	35.6%	0.4%	45.3%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	35.6%	0.4%	45.3%	6.2%	0.5%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	36.8%	0.4%	45.3%	6.2%	0.9%
2026-10-06T08:39:11+00:00	36.8%	0.4%	45.3%	6.2%	0.9%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	36.8%	0.4%	45.3%	6.2%	0.9%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	36.8%	0.4%	45.3%	6.2%	0.9%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	36.8%	0.2%	47.4%	6.2%	0.9%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	36.8%	0.2%	47.4%	6.2%	0.9%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	36.8%	0.2%	47.4%	6.2%	0.9%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	36.8%	0.2%	47.4%	6.2%	0.9%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	35.8%	0.2%	47.4%	6.2%	1.0%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	35.8%	0.2%	47.4%	6.2%	1.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	47%	78.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	71.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	71.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	70.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	70.2°F	2.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261008-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗