KPIT / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

36%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

EPSNO 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.20u · EPS −76.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	6.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	7.8%	—	—	6.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	2.1%	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	8.7%	0.0%	8.5%	13.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	15.2%	1.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	19.5%	3.6%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	10.8%	17.4%	0.6%	—	3.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	1.4%	15.7%	0.1%	—	1.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	0.6%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	0.2%	5.2%	0.6%	—	3.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	0.8%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	1.6%	1.7%	1.5%	—	1.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	0.2%	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	1.1%	1.4%	4.9%	—	2.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	0.8%	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	0.3%	1.8%	4.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	0.2%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	1.4%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	1.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	0.3%	2.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	0.3%	1.2%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	0.2%	1.2%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	47%	78.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	71.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	71.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	70.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	70.2°F	2.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261008-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗