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KPIT / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
7%
WN2
5%
EPS
3%
HRES
2%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 4.0¢Risks 1.01u
VS
ICONNO 96.0¢Risks 23.99u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.99u · ICON −23.99u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.7% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.2% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.9% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.4% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 28.4% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.6% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0009-24 06:0010-02 00:0010-09 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:000.2%————0.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:0031.6%————2.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:0011.2%—————
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:0012.0%————5.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:004.3%—————
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:0033.0%————3.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:009.3%—————
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:001.1%————5.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.1%————3.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:004.9%————2.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:002.7%————5.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:0056.9%—————
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:0015.5%————8.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:001.8%—————
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:003.0%————5.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:0051.1%—————
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:0014.9%———0.2%—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:009.2%—0.6%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:004.3%—24.9%——2.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:006.6%—4.7%———
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:008.6%—0.0%——7.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:0018.9%—0.0%———
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:0024.9%————7.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:0028.7%—2.8%———
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:0027.3%—7.8%—28.4%13.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:0023.2%—7.4%———
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:0028.2%—11.4%——9.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:0048.6%—1.8%———
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:0011.5%—1.3%0.1%——
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:0038.7%—63.4%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:0044.2%18.9%9.0%1.2%—10.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0034.0%—11.2%———
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0037.2%9.3%10.0%0.3%—9.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0010.5%—1.4%———
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:006.2%0.4%3.0%0.1%—5.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:006.2%0.0%1.8%———
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:004.1%0.7%1.1%0.9%—4.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:002.2%0.2%0.6%———
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:003.9%3.9%0.7%2.4%—0.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:001.1%0.3%0.8%———
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.1%0.4%0.1%—1.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.8%0.2%0.2%———
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.3%———
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%—0.0%—0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.7%———
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.7%0.3%0.5%0.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.7%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.2%0.0%0.4%0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.3%0.2%0.0%—0.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.4%0.3%0.0%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single7%70.8°F4.6°F2026-10-05 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%71.5°F3.7°F2026-10-05 12:00Pending
National Blend5%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-05 06:00Pending
NWS forecast3%69.0°F4.5°F2026-10-05 15:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%68.0°F4.9°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%67.7°F5.0°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
ICON<1%66.2°F4.7°F2026-10-05 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261009-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 02 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗