KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

84%

81%

45%

40%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.5¢Risks 63.50u

ICONNO 36.5¢Risks 36.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.50u · ICON −36.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	62.0%	—	79.4%	37.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	15.5%	0.8%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	12.2%	78.6%	0.7%	—	37.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	60.8%	50.0%	3.1%	—	50.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	53.0%	60.6%	2.2%	—	51.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	27.4%	67.0%	28.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	0.2%	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	50.0%	38.5%	23.2%	—	58.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	35.8%	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	35.4%	82.8%	22.8%	—	82.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	30.2%	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	28.2%	—	61.8%	—	82.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	48.1%	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	29.6%	46.1%	52.9%	0.0%	79.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	22.6%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	34.0%	47.9%	32.1%	—	69.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	47.9%	66.5%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	19.0%	64.9%	54.4%	—	76.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	44.4%	40.0%	0.0%	—	70.4%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	33.1%	39.6%	19.9%	10.0%	51.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	23.4%	60.7%	19.1%	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	27.6%	45.0%	26.6%	—	59.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	16.6%	66.3%	25.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	17.3%	66.9%	11.3%	10.7%	29.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	8.6%	28.8%	14.7%	—	21.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	8.9%	34.5%	12.2%	22.2%	30.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	13.6%	24.8%	4.1%	—	7.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	4.1%	19.2%	2.9%	8.3%	11.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.9%	15.0%	7.3%	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	77.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	76.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	77.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	70.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	69.0°F	9.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 03 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗