KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

84%

81%

45%

40%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.5¢Risks 63.50u

ICONNO 36.5¢Risks 36.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.50u · ICON −36.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00	85.2%	43.5%	74.9%	77.6%	42.3%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00	85.2%	43.5%	74.9%	77.6%	42.3%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00	85.2%	43.5%	74.9%	77.6%	42.3%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00	85.2%	43.5%	74.9%	77.6%	42.3%
2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00	86.7%	43.5%	74.9%	77.5%	42.3%
2026-10-03T14:54:51+00:00	86.7%	45.1%	74.9%	77.5%	42.3%
2026-10-03T15:40:18+00:00	86.7%	45.1%	74.9%	77.5%	42.3%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	86.7%	45.1%	74.9%	77.5%	42.3%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	86.7%	45.1%	82.0%	77.5%	42.3%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	86.7%	45.1%	82.0%	77.5%	42.3%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	86.7%	45.1%	82.0%	77.5%	42.3%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	91.1%	45.1%	82.0%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	91.1%	45.1%	82.0%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	91.1%	45.1%	82.0%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	91.1%	45.1%	82.0%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	91.1%	45.1%	82.0%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	91.1%	45.1%	83.6%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	91.1%	45.1%	83.6%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	91.1%	45.1%	83.6%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	87.1%	45.1%	83.6%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	87.1%	45.1%	83.6%	81.1%	39.9%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	87.1%	45.1%	83.6%	81.1%	39.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	77.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	76.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	77.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	70.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	69.0°F	9.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 03 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗