KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

58%

52%

11%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.3¢Risks 41.30u

ICONNO 58.7¢Risks 58.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.70u · ICON −58.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	56.0%	—	74.8%	31.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	11.8%	0.5%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	9.0%	73.1%	0.4%	—	31.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	53.6%	42.7%	2.0%	—	43.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	45.4%	53.0%	1.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	21.2%	59.5%	21.8%	—	33.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.1%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	41.7%	30.8%	17.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	28.1%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	27.7%	76.6%	16.7%	—	76.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	22.9%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	20.9%	—	52.8%	—	75.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	38.8%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	21.8%	36.6%	43.2%	0.0%	71.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	15.8%	49.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	25.1%	37.8%	23.5%	—	60.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	37.5%	56.3%	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	12.5%	54.4%	43.5%	—	66.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	33.6%	29.6%	0.0%	—	60.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	23.3%	28.9%	12.7%	5.7%	39.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	15.2%	48.8%	11.9%	—	47.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	18.2%	33.1%	17.4%	—	47.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	9.8%	53.9%	16.6%	—	37.3%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	10.1%	54.0%	6.1%	5.7%	19.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	4.3%	18.2%	8.1%	—	12.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	4.4%	22.2%	6.3%	13.0%	19.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	7.0%	14.4%	1.7%	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	1.6%	10.2%	1.1%	3.7%	5.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	7.3%	3.1%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	75.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	73.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	71.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	69.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 09 · 03:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗