KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

58%

52%

11%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.3¢Risks 41.30u

ICONNO 58.7¢Risks 58.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.70u · ICON −58.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T14:04:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	75.2%	48.3%	80.8%	54.9%	21.5%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	75.2%	48.3%	80.8%	54.9%	21.5%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	75.2%	48.3%	80.8%	54.9%	21.5%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	75.2%	48.3%	91.2%	54.9%	21.5%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	75.2%	48.3%	91.2%	54.9%	21.5%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	75.2%	48.3%	91.2%	54.9%	21.5%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	77.3%	48.3%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	77.3%	48.3%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	77.3%	48.3%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	77.3%	48.3%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	77.3%	48.3%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	77.3%	48.3%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T12:23:09+00:00	77.3%	31.8%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	77.3%	31.8%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	72.6%	31.8%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	72.6%	31.8%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T15:27:16+00:00	72.6%	33.8%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	72.6%	33.8%	91.2%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	72.6%	33.8%	87.0%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	72.6%	33.8%	87.0%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	72.6%	33.8%	87.0%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	72.6%	33.8%	87.0%	71.3%	12.3%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	66.5%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	66.5%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	66.5%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	66.5%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	66.5%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	66.5%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	66.5%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	66.5%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	70.9%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	70.9%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	70.9%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	70.9%	33.8%	87.0%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	70.9%	33.8%	80.3%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	70.9%	33.8%	80.3%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	70.9%	33.8%	80.3%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	70.9%	33.8%	80.3%	52.1%	7.8%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	70.1%	33.8%	80.3%	52.1%	2.2%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	70.1%	33.8%	80.3%	52.1%	2.2%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	70.1%	33.8%	80.3%	52.1%	2.2%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	70.1%	33.8%	80.3%	52.1%	2.2%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	70.1%	10.6%	80.3%	52.1%	2.2%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	70.1%	10.6%	80.3%	52.1%	2.2%
2026-10-10T12:34:18+00:00	70.1%	10.6%	80.3%	52.1%	2.2%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	70.1%	10.6%	80.3%	52.1%	2.2%
2026-10-10T14:04:41+00:00	57.8%	10.6%	80.3%	52.1%	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	75.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	73.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	71.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	69.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 09 · 03:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗