KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

58%

36%

32%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 33.8¢Risks 33.85u

ICONNO 66.1¢Risks 66.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +66.15u · ICON −66.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:19:55+00:00	59.4%	45.0%	80.6%	80.5%	19.9%
2026-10-07T05:06:53+00:00	59.4%	45.0%	87.2%	80.5%	19.9%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	59.4%	45.0%	87.2%	80.5%	19.9%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	59.4%	45.0%	87.2%	80.5%	19.9%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	44.5%	45.0%	87.2%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	44.5%	45.0%	87.2%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	44.5%	45.0%	87.2%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	44.5%	45.0%	87.2%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	44.5%	45.0%	87.2%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	44.5%	39.0%	78.9%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	44.5%	39.0%	78.9%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	44.5%	39.0%	78.9%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	41.8%	39.0%	78.9%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	41.8%	39.1%	78.9%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	41.8%	38.4%	78.9%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	41.8%	38.3%	78.9%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00	41.8%	38.3%	78.9%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	41.8%	38.3%	62.8%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	41.8%	38.3%	62.8%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	41.8%	38.3%	62.8%	59.7%	12.1%
2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00	43.6%	38.3%	62.8%	71.2%	15.4%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	43.6%	38.3%	62.8%	71.2%	15.4%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	43.6%	38.3%	62.8%	71.2%	15.4%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	43.6%	38.3%	62.8%	71.2%	15.4%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	43.6%	38.3%	62.8%	71.2%	15.4%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	43.6%	37.6%	55.9%	71.2%	15.5%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	43.6%	37.6%	55.9%	71.2%	15.5%
2026-10-08T00:50:45+00:00	43.6%	37.6%	55.9%	71.2%	15.5%
2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00	60.9%	37.6%	55.9%	71.2%	15.5%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00	60.9%	37.6%	55.9%	71.2%	15.5%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	57.7%	32.3%	83.3%	57.8%	3.4%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	57.7%	32.3%	83.3%	57.8%	3.4%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	57.7%	32.3%	83.3%	57.8%	3.4%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	57.7%	32.3%	83.3%	57.8%	3.4%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	57.7%	32.3%	83.3%	57.8%	3.4%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	57.7%	32.3%	83.3%	57.8%	3.4%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	52.9%	32.3%	83.3%	35.7%	8.8%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	52.9%	32.3%	83.3%	35.7%	8.8%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	52.9%	32.3%	83.3%	35.7%	8.8%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	52.9%	32.3%	83.3%	35.7%	8.8%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	52.9%	32.3%	83.3%	35.7%	8.8%
2026-10-08T23:32:43+00:00	52.9%	32.3%	58.9%	35.7%	8.8%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	52.9%	32.3%	58.9%	35.7%	8.8%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	52.9%	32.3%	58.9%	35.7%	8.8%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	57.7%	32.3%	58.9%	35.7%	8.8%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	57.7%	32.3%	58.9%	35.7%	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	59%	75.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	72.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	69.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 07 · 04:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗