KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

58%

36%

32%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 33.8¢Risks 33.85u

ICONNO 66.1¢Risks 66.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +66.15u · ICON −66.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	44.0%	—	64.2%	21.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	6.4%	0.2%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	4.5%	60.4%	0.1%	—	19.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	39.2%	29.1%	0.8%	—	29.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	38.0%	0.5%	—	29.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	11.5%	43.6%	11.9%	—	20.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	0.0%	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	26.5%	17.8%	8.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	15.7%	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	15.1%	61.3%	8.0%	—	61.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	11.6%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	10.2%	—	34.7%	—	59.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	22.4%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	10.2%	20.3%	25.5%	0.0%	52.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	6.6%	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	11.8%	20.4%	10.8%	—	39.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	19.8%	35.5%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	4.5%	33.1%	23.8%	—	45.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	16.1%	13.5%	0.0%	—	37.8%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	9.4%	12.7%	4.2%	1.5%	19.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	5.1%	26.3%	3.7%	—	25.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	6.3%	14.4%	5.9%	—	24.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	2.6%	29.1%	5.3%	—	16.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	2.6%	28.4%	1.3%	1.2%	6.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	0.8%	5.4%	1.8%	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.7%	6.8%	1.2%	3.2%	5.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.3%	3.4%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.2%	2.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.1%	0.4%	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	59%	75.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	72.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	69.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 07 · 04:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗