KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

38%

38%

19%

<1%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.7¢Risks 31.70u

ICONNO 68.3¢Risks 68.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.30u · ICON −68.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	32.4%	—	52.4%	14.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	3.1%	0.1%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	2.1%	46.5%	0.0%	—	11.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	26.0%	17.9%	0.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	18.9%	24.5%	0.1%	—	17.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	5.5%	28.8%	5.7%	—	11.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.0%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	14.8%	9.0%	3.8%	—	20.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	7.5%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	7.0%	43.9%	3.2%	—	43.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	5.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	—	19.6%	—	40.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	10.8%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	4.0%	9.4%	12.6%	0.0%	33.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	2.2%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	4.4%	9.0%	4.0%	—	21.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	8.3%	18.3%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	1.2%	16.2%	10.4%	—	25.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	6.0%	4.8%	0.0%	—	19.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	2.9%	4.2%	1.1%	0.3%	7.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	10.8%	0.9%	—	10.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	1.6%	4.6%	1.4%	—	9.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	0.5%	11.5%	1.2%	—	5.3%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.4%	10.7%	0.2%	0.2%	1.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.1%	1.1%	0.3%	—	0.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	1.3%	0.1%	0.5%	1.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	72.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗