KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

38%

38%

19%

<1%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.7¢Risks 31.70u

ICONNO 68.3¢Risks 68.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.30u · ICON −68.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:06:21+00:00	42.7%	24.5%	32.8%	54.4%	6.4%
2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00	42.7%	24.5%	32.8%	54.4%	6.4%
2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00	42.7%	24.5%	32.8%	54.4%	6.4%
2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00	42.7%	24.5%	58.3%	54.4%	6.4%
2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00	42.7%	24.5%	58.3%	54.4%	6.4%
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00	42.7%	24.5%	58.3%	54.4%	6.4%
2026-10-08T07:38:12+00:00	40.4%	24.5%	58.3%	38.5%	0.8%
2026-10-08T08:24:43+00:00	40.4%	24.5%	58.3%	38.5%	0.8%
2026-10-08T09:09:49+00:00	40.4%	24.5%	58.3%	38.5%	0.8%
2026-10-08T09:54:56+00:00	40.4%	24.5%	58.3%	38.5%	0.8%
2026-10-08T10:40:02+00:00	40.4%	24.5%	58.3%	38.5%	0.8%
2026-10-08T11:25:16+00:00	40.4%	19.0%	62.6%	38.5%	0.8%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	40.4%	19.0%	62.6%	38.5%	0.8%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	40.4%	19.0%	62.6%	38.5%	0.8%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	38.5%	19.0%	62.6%	38.5%	0.8%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	38.5%	19.0%	62.6%	38.5%	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	72.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗