KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 10 · 04:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

24%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 14.2¢Risks 14.15u

ICONNO 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +85.85u · ICON −85.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	27.2%	—	46.4%	10.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	2.1%	0.0%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	1.3%	39.6%	0.0%	—	8.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	20.4%	13.6%	0.1%	—	14.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	14.2%	18.9%	0.1%	—	13.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.6%	22.4%	3.8%	—	7.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.0%	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	10.4%	6.1%	2.3%	—	14.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	4.9%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	4.5%	35.4%	1.9%	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	3.1%	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	2.5%	—	13.9%	—	32.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	7.0%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.3%	5.9%	8.2%	0.0%	25.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.2%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	2.5%	5.5%	2.2%	—	15.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	5.0%	12.1%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.6%	10.4%	6.2%	—	17.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	3.3%	2.6%	0.0%	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.4%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	4.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.6%	6.2%	0.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.7%	2.3%	0.6%	—	5.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.2%	6.4%	0.5%	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	5.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	28%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	74.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	71.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	67.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗