KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

73%

60%

58%

16%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

ICONNO 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.30u · ICON −53.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	47.7%	79.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	89.3%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	31.1%	22.3%	—	—	80.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	80.1%	8.2%	0.9%	—	89.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	7.6%	94.5%	62.3%	—	84.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	60.6%	7.0%	78.9%	—	81.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	15.4%	49.2%	22.4%	—	85.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	9.2%	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	17.3%	—	17.8%	—	70.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	17.3%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	51.7%	42.2%	17.8%	—	43.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	42.0%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	61.8%	29.7%	7.6%	—	25.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	14.8%	19.6%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	8.6%	9.8%	5.9%	—	32.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	24.1%	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	10.8%	4.9%	22.7%	3.2%	34.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	17.6%	28.8%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	18.3%	5.0%	18.3%	—	56.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	28.6%	11.2%	0.9%	—	71.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	17.5%	25.1%	16.0%	4.5%	71.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	19.1%	13.2%	42.8%	—	61.9%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	5.5%	13.0%	13.0%	—	51.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	5.6%	16.6%	10.9%	—	32.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	4.6%	10.7%	7.0%	3.5%	26.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	4.3%	11.8%	3.7%	—	14.7%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.9%	20.2%	3.2%	2.3%	4.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.8%	1.0%	0.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	2.0%	2.0%	3.7%	4.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	7.9%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	69.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	69.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	64.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗