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KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
77%
EPS
73%
HRES
60%
AIFS
58%
ICON
16%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 46.7¢Risks 46.70u
VS
ICONNO 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.30u · ICON −53.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-09T15:27:17+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T15:27:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.2% · 2026-10-09T15:27:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.2% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-09T15:27:17+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T15:27:17+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:0010-09 15:2710-09 21:2910-10 03:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T15:27:17+00:0055.8%72.8%66.2%83.6%15.6%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:0055.8%72.8%66.2%83.6%15.6%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:0055.8%72.8%77.1%83.6%15.6%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:0055.8%72.8%77.1%83.6%15.6%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:0055.8%72.8%77.1%83.6%15.6%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:0055.8%72.8%77.1%83.6%15.6%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:0064.2%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:0064.2%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:0064.2%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:0064.2%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:0064.2%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:0064.2%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:0064.2%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:0064.2%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:0057.7%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:0057.7%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:0057.7%72.8%77.1%59.7%16.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 277%69.8°F3.1°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble73%69.7°F3.6°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
IFS HRES60%68.5°F4.1°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
AIFS Single58%68.3°F4.1°F2026-10-09 18:00Pending
NWS forecast56%68.0°F3.4°F2026-10-09 15:00Pending
National Blend55%68.0°F4.3°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending
ICON16%64.0°F3.6°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗