KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 05 · 03:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

92%

76%

70%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.4¢Risks 84.40u

EPSNO 15.6¢Risks 15.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.60u · EPS −15.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	95.3%	71.3%	96.2%	40.1%	46.7%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	95.3%	71.3%	96.2%	40.1%	46.7%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	95.3%	71.3%	96.2%	40.1%	46.7%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	95.6%	71.3%	96.2%	40.1%	46.7%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	95.6%	71.3%	96.1%	40.1%	47.1%
2026-10-04T15:06:40+00:00	95.6%	69.8%	96.1%	40.1%	47.1%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	95.6%	69.8%	96.1%	40.1%	47.1%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	95.6%	69.8%	96.1%	40.1%	47.1%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	95.6%	69.8%	94.1%	40.1%	47.1%
2026-10-04T18:08:20+00:00	95.6%	69.8%	94.1%	40.1%	47.1%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	95.6%	69.8%	94.1%	40.1%	47.1%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	98.2%	69.8%	94.1%	91.4%	76.4%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	98.2%	69.8%	94.1%	91.4%	76.4%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	98.2%	69.8%	94.1%	91.4%	76.4%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	98.2%	69.8%	94.1%	91.4%	76.4%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	98.2%	69.8%	94.1%	91.4%	76.4%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	98.2%	69.8%	99.0%	91.7%	76.4%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	98.2%	69.8%	99.0%	91.7%	76.4%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	98.2%	69.8%	99.0%	91.7%	76.4%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	97.6%	69.8%	99.0%	91.7%	76.4%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	97.6%	69.8%	99.0%	91.7%	76.4%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	97.6%	69.8%	99.0%	91.7%	76.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	81.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	80.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	78.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	76.5°F	9.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	72.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 04 · 11:16 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗