KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 05 · 03:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

92%

76%

70%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.4¢Risks 84.40u

EPSNO 15.6¢Risks 15.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.60u · EPS −15.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	36.6%	70.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	82.0%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	20.3%	13.5%	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	68.9%	4.0%	0.4%	—	82.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	3.6%	89.0%	47.8%	—	74.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	45.4%	3.2%	66.3%	—	69.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	7.8%	33.7%	12.3%	—	73.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	4.1%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	8.7%	—	9.0%	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	8.5%	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	34.6%	26.2%	8.6%	—	26.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	25.7%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	43.6%	16.0%	2.9%	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	6.4%	9.2%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	3.2%	3.8%	2.0%	—	17.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	11.4%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	4.0%	1.5%	10.3%	0.9%	17.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	7.2%	13.8%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	7.3%	1.4%	7.3%	—	35.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	12.9%	3.8%	0.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	6.5%	10.5%	5.7%	1.1%	48.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	7.0%	4.3%	21.6%	—	38.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.3%	4.0%	4.0%	—	27.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.3%	5.3%	3.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.9%	2.8%	1.6%	0.6%	9.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.8%	3.0%	0.7%	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	5.9%	0.5%	0.3%	0.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%	0.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	81.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	80.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	78.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	76.5°F	9.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	72.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 04 · 11:16 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗