KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 04 · 10:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

51%

39%

28%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.0¢Risks 60.00u

HRESNO 40.0¢Risks 40.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.00u · HRES −40.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	9.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	26.6%	60.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	72.2%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	12.1%	7.5%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	55.6%	1.8%	0.1%	—	71.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	1.5%	80.6%	33.7%	—	61.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	30.9%	1.3%	51.5%	—	54.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	3.4%	20.6%	5.9%	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	1.6%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	3.8%	—	3.9%	—	37.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	3.6%	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	20.2%	14.1%	3.6%	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	13.5%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	26.6%	7.3%	0.9%	—	5.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	2.3%	3.6%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	1.0%	1.2%	0.6%	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	4.4%	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	1.2%	0.4%	3.8%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.3%	5.2%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.3%	0.3%	2.3%	—	17.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	4.5%	0.9%	0.0%	—	28.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.8%	3.3%	1.5%	0.2%	27.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.9%	1.0%	8.2%	—	18.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.2%	0.9%	0.9%	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.2%	1.2%	0.6%	—	4.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	2.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	78.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	78.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	71.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	68.7°F	9.7°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	67.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗