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KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 04 · 10:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
92%
AIFS
90%
EPS
51%
ICON
39%
HRES
28%
Consensus
68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 60.0¢Risks 60.00u
VS
HRESNO 40.0¢Risks 40.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.00u · HRES −40.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00IFS HRES: 28.5% · 2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00IFS HRES: 28.5% · 2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 28.5% · 2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00IFS HRES: 28.5% · 2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00IFS HRES: 28.5% · 2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:0010-04 07:2910-04 09:0010-04 10:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:0090.5%50.7%91.5%28.5%38.7%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:0090.5%50.7%91.5%28.5%38.7%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:0090.5%50.7%91.5%28.5%38.7%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:0090.5%50.7%91.5%28.5%38.7%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:0090.5%50.7%91.5%28.5%38.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 292%78.8°F5.3°F2026-10-03 18:00Pending
AIFS Single90%78.8°F5.6°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F6.5°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble51%71.6°F6.0°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
ICON39%68.7°F9.7°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
IFS HRES28%67.9°F6.3°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗