KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

51%

48%

44%

20%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

AIFSNO 56.1¢Risks 56.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +56.10u · AIFS −56.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	3.0%	44.3%	85.5%	67.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	3.0%	44.3%	85.5%	67.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	3.0%	44.3%	37.1%	67.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	3.0%	44.3%	37.1%	67.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	3.0%	44.3%	37.1%	67.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	50.8%	44.3%	37.1%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	50.8%	44.3%	37.1%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	50.8%	44.3%	37.1%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	50.8%	44.3%	37.1%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	50.8%	44.3%	37.1%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	50.8%	44.3%	50.9%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	50.8%	44.3%	50.9%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	50.8%	44.3%	50.9%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	20.3%	44.3%	50.9%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	20.3%	44.3%	50.9%	67.5%	48.3%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	20.3%	44.3%	50.9%	67.5%	48.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	68%	75.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	72.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
ICON	48%	72.2°F	6.9°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	68.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 05 · 16:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗