KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

51%

48%

44%

20%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

AIFSNO 56.1¢Risks 56.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +56.10u · AIFS −56.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	22.1%	54.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	66.4%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	9.0%	5.4%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	48.6%	1.1%	0.1%	—	65.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	0.9%	75.1%	27.2%	—	54.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	24.5%	0.8%	43.9%	—	46.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	2.2%	15.4%	3.9%	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	0.9%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	2.3%	—	2.5%	—	30.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	2.2%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	14.6%	9.7%	2.2%	—	10.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	9.2%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	19.6%	4.6%	0.5%	—	3.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	1.3%	2.1%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	0.6%	0.3%	—	4.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	2.5%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.6%	0.2%	2.1%	0.1%	4.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.2%	3.0%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.1%	0.1%	1.1%	—	11.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.4%	0.4%	0.0%	—	19.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	0.1%	18.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.9%	0.4%	4.5%	—	11.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%	—	6.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.5%	0.2%	—	1.9%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	1.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	68%	75.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	72.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
ICON	48%	72.2°F	6.9°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	68.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 05 · 16:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗