KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

84%

84%

72%

66%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.4¢Risks 77.35u

EPSNO 22.6¢Risks 22.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.65u · EPS −22.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	11.2%	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	4.9%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	68.8%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	3.2%	13.9%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	74.3%	59.7%	31.7%	—	85.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	60.1%	9.0%	42.0%	—	83.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	74.9%	—	46.2%	—	70.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	72.6%	92.8%	37.5%	—	71.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	15.8%	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	74.9%	81.6%	39.3%	—	64.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	26.0%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	37.9%	14.1%	22.1%	—	72.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	58.9%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	73.4%	9.0%	38.2%	—	62.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	65.7%	28.4%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	72.1%	11.6%	25.5%	—	77.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	70.1%	46.0%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	69.7%	70.6%	50.0%	1.7%	86.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	86.8%	84.4%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	74.5%	85.7%	37.1%	—	79.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	74.2%	81.7%	0.9%	—	81.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	74.0%	48.8%	43.0%	—	82.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	63.0%	28.3%	31.4%	—	84.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	68.0%	78.3%	36.5%	51.2%	79.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	72.0%	88.5%	30.2%	—	81.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	44.6%	66.9%	58.0%	44.6%	86.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	48.6%	77.9%	52.8%	—	85.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	41.4%	78.8%	57.2%	24.5%	91.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	59.0%	68.9%	54.5%	—	92.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	63.9%	60.9%	71.0%	54.7%	88.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	54.9%	58.2%	64.5%	—	75.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	73.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	73.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
ICON	84%	74.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	71.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 07 · 16:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗