WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPIT / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
89%
AIFS
84%
ICON
84%
HRES
72%
EPS
66%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 77.4¢Risks 77.35u
VS
EPSNO 22.6¢Risks 22.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.65u · EPS −22.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.6% · 2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 98.6% · 2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00AIFS Single: 98.6% · 2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00AIFS Single: 98.6% · 2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.3% · 2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:0010-07 16:3210-07 21:5010-08 02:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:0098.6%65.5%96.3%73.3%82.4%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:0098.6%65.5%93.8%73.3%82.4%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:0098.6%65.5%93.8%73.3%82.4%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:0098.6%65.5%93.8%73.3%82.4%
2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:0095.9%65.5%93.8%71.6%83.2%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:0095.9%65.5%93.8%71.6%83.2%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:0095.9%65.5%93.8%71.6%83.2%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:0095.9%65.5%93.8%71.6%83.2%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:0095.9%65.5%93.8%71.6%83.2%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:0095.9%65.5%89.2%71.6%83.6%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:0095.9%65.5%89.2%71.6%83.6%
2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:0095.9%65.5%89.2%71.6%83.6%
2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:0083.6%65.5%89.2%71.6%83.6%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:0083.6%65.5%89.2%71.6%83.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 289%73.5°F4.0°F2026-10-07 12:00Pending
AIFS Single84%73.3°F4.9°F2026-10-07 18:00Pending
ICON84%74.2°F5.8°F2026-10-07 12:00Pending
IFS HRES72%71.8°F5.8°F2026-10-07 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%69.9°F3.5°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
National Blend63%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-07 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%69.0°F5.1°F2026-10-07 15:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261012-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 07 · 16:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗