KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

94%

89%

87%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 93.5¢Risks 46.75u

ICONNO 6.5¢Risks 3.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +3.25u · ICON −3.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	67.0%	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	56.8%	—	—	87.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	20.9%	—	—	83.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	32.4%	—	—	92.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	15.7%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	60.9%	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	49.3%	86.8%	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	74.8%	—	64.4%	—	91.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.3%	69.6%	61.6%	90.7%	—	72.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	80.0%	84.5%	62.7%	—	83.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	64.8%	82.1%	75.2%	—	96.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	41.9%	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.8%	99.8%	99.0%	—	97.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.5%	99.6%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.1%	99.9%	99.9%	—	99.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	99.8%	—	99.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	23.8%	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	12.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	15.9%	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	80.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	69.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	71.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
ICON	87%	71.3°F	6.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	66.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗