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KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
WN2
>99%
EPS
94%
HRES
89%
ICON
87%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 93.5¢Risks 46.75u
VS
ICONNO 6.5¢Risks 3.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +3.25u · ICON −3.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.0% · 2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00ICON: 87.1% · 2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00ICON: 87.1% · 2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00ICON: 87.1% · 2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00ICON: 87.1% · 2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00ICON: 87.1% · 2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00ICON: 87.1% · 2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:0010-08 03:0610-08 05:2210-08 06:53
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:0099.9%94.0%94.7%89.3%87.1%
2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:0099.9%94.0%94.7%89.3%87.1%
2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:0099.9%94.0%94.7%89.3%87.1%
2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:0099.9%94.0%99.9%89.3%87.1%
2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:0099.9%94.0%99.9%89.3%87.1%
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:0099.9%94.0%99.9%89.3%87.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single>99%80.5°F5.3°F2026-10-07 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 2>99%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-07 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble94%69.9°F4.1°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
IFS HRES89%71.7°F6.6°F2026-10-07 12:00Pending
ICON87%71.3°F6.9°F2026-10-07 12:00Pending
National Blend60%66.0°F10.0°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%64.0°F5.1°F2026-10-08 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗