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KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
96%
HRES
91%
EPS
79%
WN2
69%
ICON
58%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 77.1¢Risks 77.15u
VS
ICONNO 22.9¢Risks 22.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.85u · ICON −22.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.7% · 2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.4% · 2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.4% · 2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.4% · 2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.4% · 2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.4% · 2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.4% · 2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.4% · 2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00IFS HRES: 91.4% · 2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:0010-06 20:0010-06 23:4810-07 03:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:0099.6%78.7%60.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:0099.6%78.7%60.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:0099.6%78.7%60.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:0099.6%78.7%60.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:0099.6%78.7%69.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:0099.6%78.7%69.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:0099.6%78.7%69.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:0099.6%78.7%69.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:0096.2%78.7%69.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:0096.2%78.7%69.4%91.4%58.1%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:0096.2%78.7%69.4%91.4%58.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single96%79.4°F5.6°F2026-10-06 18:00Pending
IFS HRES91%78.2°F6.4°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble79%73.4°F4.9°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 269%72.0°F4.9°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
ICON58%71.5°F9.8°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
National Blend53%70.0°F7.6°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 06 · 20:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗