KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

79%

69%

58%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 77.1¢Risks 77.15u

ICONNO 22.9¢Risks 22.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.85u · ICON −22.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	35.9%	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	24.7%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	4.5%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	8.6%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	2.5%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	24.1%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	15.1%	54.0%	—	—	77.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	34.9%	—	24.6%	—	61.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	27.9%	21.0%	58.7%	—	31.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	38.0%	44.7%	20.5%	—	43.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	20.6%	39.0%	30.1%	—	73.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	7.6%	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	94.9%	94.4%	85.7%	—	74.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	90.5%	91.2%	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	77.2%	96.6%	95.0%	—	87.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	96.1%	97.6%	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	98.3%	92.7%	93.7%	—	91.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.0%	97.8%	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.0%	98.3%	96.6%	—	99.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	98.2%	98.4%	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	97.7%	98.8%	98.8%	—	99.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	98.7%	99.0%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	98.1%	99.3%	98.3%	0.9%	99.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	97.9%	99.4%	0.2%	—	99.6%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	96.0%	99.7%	99.0%	98.5%	99.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	97.3%	99.7%	98.9%	—	99.9%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.5%	99.9%	99.2%	0.2%	99.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.9%	99.9%	99.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.2%	100.0%	99.4%	99.7%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.6%	99.9%	99.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	79.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	78.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	73.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	72.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	58%	71.5°F	9.8°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 06 · 20:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗