KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

91%

64%

20%

12%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

ICONNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.20u · ICON −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	1.8%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	1.0%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	5.6%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	1.6%	—	0.7%	—	7.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.8%	0.4%	5.3%	—	1.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	1.3%	2.0%	0.3%	—	1.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	0.2%	1.1%	0.6%	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.0%	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	32.2%	30.8%	15.2%	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	20.1%	21.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	7.3%	35.4%	29.1%	—	15.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	31.0%	39.3%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	42.7%	19.6%	21.6%	—	17.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	48.1%	36.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	45.1%	37.6%	27.1%	—	45.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	34.4%	35.3%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	27.6%	36.9%	36.9%	—	40.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	33.5%	36.5%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	25.5%	39.2%	26.4%	0.0%	45.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	21.4%	36.7%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	12.1%	43.0%	27.0%	22.4%	47.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	13.9%	40.5%	23.4%	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	16.6%	45.0%	23.6%	0.0%	52.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	17.4%	39.8%	18.2%	—	44.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	16.5%	48.7%	20.0%	26.2%	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	20.1%	39.0%	19.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	35.8%	33.1%	23.4%	31.8%	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	36.6%	38.1%	18.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	29.0%	43.7%	21.4%	45.3%	59.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	70.5%	54.9%	40.2%	—	74.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	85.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	84.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	79.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	77.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	75.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗