KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

91%

64%

20%

12%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

ICONNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.20u · ICON −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:37+00:00	88.6%	21.1%	96.2%	66.6%	11.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	88.6%	19.9%	96.2%	66.6%	11.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	88.6%	19.9%	94.2%	66.6%	11.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	88.6%	19.9%	94.2%	66.6%	11.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	88.6%	19.9%	94.2%	66.6%	11.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	88.6%	19.9%	94.2%	66.6%	11.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	94.2%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	94.2%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	94.2%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	94.2%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	95.3%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	95.3%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	95.3%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	95.3%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	95.3%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	95.3%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	95.3%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	95.3%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	97.4%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	97.4%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	97.4%	63.6%	12.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	91.3%	19.9%	97.4%	63.6%	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	85.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	84.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	79.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	77.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	75.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗