KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 08 · 22:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

>99%

85%

66%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

HRESNO 17.0¢Risks 17.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.05u · HRES −17.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	92.9%	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	38.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	93.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	99.7%	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	98.8%	—	—	92.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	11.8%	27.1%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	29.8%	50.0%	5.4%	—	59.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	27.9%	55.8%	24.3%	—	91.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.5%	99.2%	87.5%	—	90.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	96.2%	86.9%	98.8%	—	93.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	99.7%	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	82.2%	98.4%	—	97.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	96.2%	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	96.2%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	98.8%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	76.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	75.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	>99%	75.5°F	6.9°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	67.8°F	8.9°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	61.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	60.0°F	8.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗